ARLINGTON, Va.-- The slower-than expected conversion to non-CFC equipment raises the specter that many building owners will remain dependent on increasingly scarce reclaimed CFC refrigerants on January 1, 2000, four years after the government banned production of the ozone-depleting chemicals.
Statistics on conversion rates are part of a survey released by the Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute (ARI) during the ARI's Sixth Annual Media Roundtable. The event on April 9 brought together industry media, industry representatives and officials from the ARI, the industry trade association. Topics ranged from the North American Technical Excellence (NATE) certification program for HVAC technicians to status reports on this year's meetings of Parties to the Montreal Protocol and Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change.
The results of the survey were presented by Ed Dooley, ARI vice president, communication and education. Dooley said that 4,356 CFC chillers in the U.S. were replaced or converted during 1996, but this total was 1,514 fewer than projected. The ARI, he said, now estimates (see chart) that 53% of 80-000 CFC chillers in the U.S. in 1992 will remain in service on Jan. 1, 2000.
On a more positive note, Dooley said the survey showed that during 1996 owners opted almost 3-to-1 (3,045 to 1,311) to purchase more efficient HCFC units rather than convert CFC equipment. The more efficient equipment is saving owners millions of dollars annually and also reducing demand for electricity. He suggested that demand for non-CFC chillers could increase dramatically in future years, especially as the supply of virgin CFCs is exhausted and an unexpectedly large number of building owners become dependent on the reclaimed CFCs.
Another topic discussed was the proposed ASHRAE Standard 62R, now nearing its second full public review. Mark Menzer, ARI vice president, engineering, outlined proposed changes and some ARI membership concerns. Issues include possible health liability questions, treatment of competing technologies, filter specifications, and methods to determine ventilation requirements.
These concerns, he said, have been expressed by ARI's Board of Directors to ASHRAE Standing Standard Project Committee (SSPC) 62, the committee revising the standard. Various groups within ARI also are developing comments. Menzer suggested two possible solutions: divide Standard 62 into several standards, and/or allow equipment makers to promulgate their own standards for equipment through ARI.
Ted Leland, ARI vice president, government affairs, covered some issues related to the 10th Anniversary Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol in Montreal in September, and the 3rd Conference to the Framework Convention on Climate Change in Kyoto, Japan.
He said the European Union has proposed revising the Montreal Protocol by dropping the ozone depletion cap (odp) to 2.0 from 2.8 and moving the HCFC phaseout to 2015 from 2030. ARI's position, he said, is that the Montreal Protocol is working and the odp cap and phaseout schedule should not be changed. The ARI has long maintained the need to use less harmful HCFC and HFC refrigerants as an interim solution to ozone depletion. The ARI contends that an earlier phaseout could slow or halt the ongoing conversion to HCFC equipment, triggering additional environmental damage.
Leland said momentum is building for an agreement on climate change to be concluded by the end of 1997. The principal "greenhouse problem" is CO2 and 90% of the emissions are created by 46 countries. The U.S. contributes the most (about 5%), followed by China which is expected to exceed the U.S. by the Year 2010. The U.S. is recommending an emissions "budget" that lets nations bank early reductions. it also is championing an emission trading plan.
Another speaker, Renee Hancher, ARI's director of international trade, told the attendees that export of HVAC&R equipment has doubled from 1987 to 1996 and now total $4.6 billion. The trade surplus is now $2.5 billion and the HVAC&R "is one of the few industries with a consistently good trade surplus." The numbers, she added, don't tell the true story. China, for example, is a home to all major manufacturers, and many suppliers have facilities in India, a byproduct of "outrageous tariffs." The leading buyers of U.S. products have traditionally been Canada and Mexico, but those markets have been surpassed by the Asian-Pacific nations. Saudi Arabia, she said, has drooped slightly as a market but Latin America is "coming on strong."
Hancher said the global $45 billion HVAC&R market is expected to grow to $50 billion in Year 2000. The U.S. and Japan each now provide 35% of the market but Hancher said China is becoming a major player, and South Korea and Taiwan are developing a presence.
ARI President Ted Rees outlined the NATE certification program for technicians that debuts with the first national testing day in October. The certification is divided into three levels: senior, service and installation technicians. Technicians can certify in any or all office sectors: heat pumps, air distribution, air condition, gas furnaces and oil furnaces. Rees said he believes that NATE certification will eventually be a criteria for employment in the HVAC&R service industry.